25 April 2008
25 April 2008
24 April 2008
23 April 2008
22 April 2008
21 April 2008
18 April 2008
17 April 2008
16 April 2008
15 April 2008
Price/Vol Analysis - Cosco Corp II
Looks like investors/traders love COSCO very much. The daily visit surged a lot for the particular day when I put Price/Vol analysis in my blog.
Today COSCO surge pass $2.94 (waterline) where 17,000 lots were dumped down previous day. I have roughly calculated the volume on the day one after the dumping. Average price $2.87 with 25,748 lots (14,276 lots buy up, 9,904 lots sell down, ignoring director buying/selling), volume distribution as below:
The volume suggests that there might be slight accumulation or short covering but overall is not really convincing as the price move above the waterline in the very next day.
Two possibilities could happen:
- Accumulation done and push to next level (above $2.94). Accumulate again to surge for next level ($3.18).
- Partial short covering done, push to next level to distribute again thus current price more than $2.94.
The fear is not good enough, the profit is not good enough. These reasons might force the invisible hand to do another round of killing. However, since they are a lot of BBs looking at this counter, it is not easy to do so unless the general market is moving south.
The worst situation now is the price move sideway along $2.94 - $3.18 band for some time. It could be a sign of distributing at higher low.
Why distribute at higher low? It is because distributing at low is hard, you need to push the price slightly above the low to create 'hope' for retailers. Price slightly above the low is called higher low.To enter safe into COSCO, you need the gap between $3.18 - $3.36 to be fully filled.
Looking towards positive side, the south moving is a positive sign. First of all, do you know COSCO has previous weekly gap from $2.98 to $3.28? Filling the weekly gap is to strengthen to upward force 'later' and myth also tells us that weekly gap will be filled sooner or later.
If sell down is heavy, the hand who catches it is also strong. There are a lot of hands in the market, one hand decided to quit. So we let him quit the game. Just be careful of overall market turn south.
Personally, I am not vest or not yet vest.
14 April 2008
13 April 2008
Price/Vol Analysis - Cosco Corp
Chart taken from iOCBC - 5min per candle from 10April to 11April.
I notice a lot of discussion of Cosco in CNA forum so to boost blog view, I come out with a price/vol analysis. Please note that the analysis is purely based on Price/Vol (it is very rare analysis but I believe Price and Vol is the best indication on short term trading) and only take this as educational purposes, please consult your advisor before induce any trading.
Two wall of resistances are built at $3.18 and $2.94 when huge sell down were taken place. Look at the sell down volume, huge vol sell down with thin volume buy up and continue with huge sell down with thin buy up. Now that you understand why price can't close more than $2.94.
If you were the one who sell down 17000 lots ($50million) at $2.94, will you allow price to go up without buying or covering cheaper? In order to sell down shares of $50million, the one who sell down is not a small fly. However I believe after the first sell down on 10 April 1100, small accumulation starts to take place but the earning is not good enough by looking at your 'investment'. Thus sell down continues to push the price down and accumulate below sell down price to replenish/cover earlier sold shares.
The next day 11 April 2008, the volume is not as thick as 10 April 2008. It is not easy to accumulate because there is not enough fear, the price can't move down due to psychological $2.80-$2.85 support.
Large sell down thin buy up that's already a no good sign ahead. If sentimental is good, the price will go sideway until accumulation is done. If sentimental is bad, continue the sell down to next support level while accumulate bits by bits simultaneously.
Retailers what to do? Long term investors, if you believe long term you have to hold and the fact is you need to see the price go down into water. If you are contra-ians, normally it is hard to trade unless you are skillful enough.
Risk level: Short term (Medium to High), Long term (entry price at $2.90 is low risk, you might get cheaper).
11 April 2008
10 April 2008
09 April 2008
08 April 2008
07 April 2008
04 April 2008
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