Guess What - 27 Feb 2009
27 February 2009
26 February 2009
25 February 2009
24 February 2009
23 February 2009
20 February 2009
Wave 'e'?
What is Wave 'e'? It supposed to be originated from Elliot Wave 5-3 cycle. When the third wave in Bear market which is Wave 'c' unable to fully capitulate the market and the condition become worsening we shall see Wave 'e'. I am not sure where is the source for Wave 'e' (let's forget about the source, maybe it is from me :D), but from the STI chart I have put up we can see some similarities between 1998 and 2009.
Let see the overlay between both charts. Between June to Aug 1998, we see a flag that is quite 'flat' (like what happened last Nov 2008). Many must forgot what I wrote here, look for the last two paragraph.
And now, another round of Double Bottom likely to form. Will STI able to form another double bottom? Or break down? Not until neck line has been breached, we are unsure the formation of major trend.Look for the bold text, I have stated the condition for birth of new Bull market. You should read this article of Double Bottom if you haven't.
I see if Double Bottom is formed from this formation, the rally won't last long to become a Bull market. The Double Bottom need to be extended to form better base. Otherwise it would become a short rally like early 1998. Anyway, it is because of early 1998, many of us got back what we have lost on 1997. So, yes or not, depends on you.
The million dollar question today is whether does Wave 'e' exists. If it really exists, are we heading for the Wave 'e' soon? How to identify Wave 'e'? What to buy as the recovery will be at very fast speed?
Technically speaking, we are heading for Wave 'e', provided the bearishness of the market breaks the previous double bottom formation at shoulder line at confirmation (commonly >5% confirmation to avoid fake break down). You can refer to my Head & Shoulder chart pattern and look for STI shoulder yourself. Wave 'e' should be very sharp and scary too.
It is very hard to catch Wave 'e' because the knife is very 'sharp' and can appears to send wrong rebounding signal too. The best is not to commit fully until the new trend is confirmed which is the completion of double bottom (break out from neck line). Even though it never happened to STI, I believe there is a condition for another Wave 'g' (another down wave) if market is not completely deleverage. So, too much possibility and my views too can change from time to time (I am part of the market too) however longer term for investment by buying bit by bit at value shall reaps better profit long term.
19 February 2009
18 February 2009
17 February 2009
16 February 2009
Guess What - 16 Feb 2009
Despite board market sell down "Guess What" counter is green today but we are not out of the wood yet.
14 February 2009
13 February 2009
12 February 2009
11 February 2009
10 February 2009
09 February 2009
06 February 2009
05 February 2009
04 February 2009
4 Feb 2009
Although ADL shows sign of weakness the index is still hovering within the 1700 window. Slightly divergence shows between STI vs ADL. There is risk of breaking down in term of STI and ADL which causes a strong downward pressure.
When looking at BDI, we see strong rebound since last year. We are only at about 10% of the 2008 peak which may show more upside. Breaking out from flag channel (one month period) suggested stronger upside move. However, we are anticipating some throw back before BDI goes into another level.
A fail of breaking out from 50MA, USDJPY turns out of favor. Short term wise, USDJPY break down from flag since 22 Jan 2009 which is a bad sign. A good thing is there are quite a number of tail formed when USDJPY tested the recent trendline support suggested the immediate downside is more resilience.
03 February 2009
02 February 2009
01 February 2009
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